A startling revelation about Pakistan's urbanization is shaking up the status quo. World Bank research uncovers a massive gap between official statistics and reality.
The study, based on satellite imagery and the Degree of Urbanisation (DoU) methodology, reveals that Pakistan's urbanization level is a staggering 88%, far beyond the official estimate of 39%. This discrepancy is not just a statistical anomaly; it has profound implications for policy and planning.
The Root of the Disparity
The issue lies in the method of classification. Official estimates rely on administrative boundaries, which often fail to capture the true essence of urbanization. In contrast, the DoU considers population density and settlement patterns, providing a more nuanced understanding.
Unveiling the Hidden Urban Population
The analysis shows that Pakistan's urban population is nearly double what official statistics suggest. The official definition, focusing solely on major cities, misses the burgeoning peri-urban areas, which now accommodate almost half the population. These areas, often overlooked, are key drivers of recent urban expansion.
But here's where it gets controversial: The study challenges the common narrative of megacities as the primary urban growth centers. Instead, it highlights the significant urbanization in smaller and intermediate urban centers, which contribute substantially to the urban population growth.
Bridging the Classification Gap
The DoU classification paints a different picture. Approximately 88% of Pakistan's population resides in areas with urban characteristics, with 46% in high-density cities and 42% in moderately dense urban centers. This is in stark contrast to the official data, which underrepresents urbanization, especially in Islamabad, where the DoU shows a 90% urban population compared to the official 47%.
The Fiscal and Planning Impact
This discrepancy is not without consequences. Misclassified areas result in reduced property tax revenues and hinder the efficient planning and delivery of public services. Furthermore, it skews socioeconomic indicators, making it challenging to design effective public policies.
And this is the part most people miss: The last time Pakistan's urban classification reflected reality was in 1972. Since then, the responsibility has shifted to provincial committees, which are not mandated to consider population concentration or revise boundaries regularly.
A Call for Action
The study underscores the need for a reevaluation of urbanization metrics and policies. By embracing the DoU methodology, Pakistan can gain a more accurate understanding of its urban landscape and make informed decisions for the future. This revelation prompts a critical question: Is it time for a paradigm shift in how we define and plan our urban spaces?
What do you think? Are we ready to challenge conventional definitions of urbanization and embrace a more inclusive and accurate approach? Share your thoughts and let's spark a conversation on reshaping urban development strategies.
